732
FXUS64 KSJT 281841
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD
THIS MORNING, CONTINUING TO BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED OVER
AN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE TO SONORA THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR UP AND DRY
OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAY-TIME HEATING INCREASES WITH SOME
SUNSHINE MAKING ITS WAY THOUGH. THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY. AS THE WARMING TREND
INTO THIS WEEKEND BEGINS, SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S, COOLING INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ON SUNDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGRADING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH LENDS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN NBM LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
RETURN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING AGAIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 60 92 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 59 91 60 87 / 0 0 20 0
JUNCTION 58 90 60 89 / 0 0 20 10
BROWNWOOD 57 91 60 88 / 0 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 61 91 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 59 88 60 85 / 0 0 20 0
BRADY 59 91 63 88 / 0 10 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...24
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