837
FXUS64 KSJT 282349 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
649 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY IS PUSHING INTO EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WITH WITH DOWNWARD MOTION IS ALREADY
FILTERING IN AND CLEARING OUT THE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT DUE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BRING SOME CLOUD COVER BACK IN
OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND I-10 CORRIDOR AS WELL
AS UP TO AROUND BROWNWOOD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS TOMORROW, THEREBY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH BY NOONTIME WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 30. THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD
SHOULD RESULT IN A HOT, DRY AIRMASS AND ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO, WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONGER WINDS, THIS COULD LEAD
TO AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S, COOLING INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ON SUNDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGRADING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH LENDS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN NBM LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET,
AND SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NORTHWARD OVER APPROXIMATELY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS (1000-2000FT) AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, AND HAVE
INCLUDED KSJT WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD
FIELD. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK UP AROUND MID-MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS. ON SATURDAY, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID-TO-LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KANSAS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A
DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
SHOWING A BULGE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE DRYLINE,
STRONGER WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO OCCUR WITH MODELS SHOWING DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH 90 DEGREES AND RESULTING HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW
AS 9 PERCENT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK AND VEGETATION DRYNESS IN THE 75TH
TO 90TH PERCENTILE, THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 60 92 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 59 91 60 87 / 0 0 20 0
JUNCTION 58 90 60 89 / 0 0 20 10
BROWNWOOD 57 91 60 88 / 0 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 61 91 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 59 88 60 85 / 0 0 20 0
BRADY 59 91 63 88 / 0 10 20 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-
TAYLOR.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19
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