328
FXUS64 KSJT 290548
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1248 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY IS PUSHING INTO EAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WITH WITH DOWNWARD MOTION IS ALREADY
FILTERING IN AND CLEARING OUT THE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT DUE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BRING SOME CLOUD COVER BACK IN
OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND I-10 CORRIDOR AS WELL
AS UP TO AROUND BROWNWOOD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS TOMORROW, THEREBY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH BY NOONTIME WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TO 30. THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD
SHOULD RESULT IN A HOT, DRY AIRMASS AND ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO, WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONGER WINDS, THIS COULD LEAD
TO AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S, COOLING INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ON SUNDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGRADING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH LENDS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN NBM LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR UNDER
DEVELOPING STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z. KABI LOOKS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF AVOIDING THE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING, THOUGH
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS KABI AND KSJT
TERMINALS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS KJCT,
KSOA, AND KBBD WILL BECOME BREEZY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KANSAS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A
DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
SHOWING A BULGE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE DRYLINE,
STRONGER WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO OCCUR WITH MODELS SHOWING DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S AND 30S BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH 90 DEGREES AND RESULTING HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW
AS 9 PERCENT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK AND VEGETATION DRYNESS IN THE 75TH
TO 90TH PERCENTILE, THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 86 48 73 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 60 87 48 78 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 61 90 48 82 / 20 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 59 88 47 75 / 20 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 62 84 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 60 85 52 81 / 20 0 0 0
BRADY 62 88 50 76 / 20 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COKE-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...TP
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