252
FXUS64 KSJT 290703
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
203 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR
THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, FROM 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S TODAY. THESE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, WILL
YIELD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY TODAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S, COOLING INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ON SUNDAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGRADING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH LENDS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN NBM LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR UNDER
DEVELOPING STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z. KABI LOOKS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF AVOIDING THE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING, THOUGH
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS KABI AND KSJT
TERMINALS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS KJCT,
KSOA, AND KBBD WILL BECOME BREEZY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KANSAS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO OCCUR WITH MODELS SHOWING RH VALUES INTO
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH MID 80S TO MID 90, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK
AND VEGETATION DRYNESS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE, THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA. THEREFOR THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 92 63 86 48 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 91 60 87 48 / 0 20 0 0
JUNCTION 90 61 90 48 / 0 20 10 0
BROWNWOOD 92 59 88 47 / 10 20 10 0
SWEETWATER 92 62 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 87 60 85 52 / 0 20 0 0
BRADY 90 62 88 50 / 0 20 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-
TAYLOR.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...TP
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