194
FXUS64 KSJT 291740
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, FROM 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S TODAY. THESE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, WILL
YIELD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY TODAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
EXPECT MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM 850 TEMPERATURES TO
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY MORNING, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN HEARTLAND. A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM/STATIONARY FRONT
WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEK(FRIDAY) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WEATHER AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THERE'S AROUND
A 30 PERCENT CHANGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KABI. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW, WE ONLY HAVE KJCT DROPPING
BELOW VFR, BUT THE LOW CLOUDS COULD EXPAND TOWARDS KBBD AND KSOA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND A
DRY LINE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KANSAS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO OCCUR WITH MODELS SHOWING RH VALUES INTO
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH MID 80S TO MID 90, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK
AND VEGETATION DRYNESS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE, THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA. THEREFOR THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 92 61 87 49 / 0 20 0 0
SAN ANGELO 91 60 88 49 / 0 20 0 0
JUNCTION 90 62 90 51 / 0 40 20 0
BROWNWOOD 92 60 88 48 / 10 30 10 0
SWEETWATER 92 61 85 48 / 0 10 0 0
OZONA 88 60 86 54 / 10 30 0 0
BRADY 90 62 88 51 / 10 30 20 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...AP
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