920
FXUS64 KSJT 291903
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
203 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, FROM 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S TODAY. THESE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, WILL
YIELD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY TODAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN SOME WAY. THE
WEEK SHOULD START OFF WITH THE INTRUSION OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OTHER
THAN LOWER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN US FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. MODELS SHOW A 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
50KT MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR 25 TO 35 MPH
WINDS OCCURRING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD GENERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ALTHOUGH THE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE, MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND ENTRENCH
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN US, WHICH WOULD PLACE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS, COMBINED WITH A STEADY FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE STALLED BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS ALWAYS, MODEL SOLUTIONS CAN AND WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THERE'S AROUND
A 30 PERCENT CHANGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KABI. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW, WE ONLY HAVE KJCT DROPPING
BELOW VFR, BUT THE LOW CLOUDS COULD EXPAND TOWARDS KBBD AND KSOA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND A
DRY LINE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KANSAS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO OCCUR WITH MODELS SHOWING RH VALUES INTO
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH MID 80S TO MID 90, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK
AND VEGETATION DRYNESS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE, THERE IS A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA. THEREFOR THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 87 49 73 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 60 88 49 79 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 62 90 51 84 / 40 20 0 0
BROWNWOOD 60 88 48 75 / 30 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 61 85 48 73 / 10 0 0 0
OZONA 60 86 54 82 / 30 0 0 0
BRADY 62 88 51 77 / 30 20 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...AP
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