880
FXUS64 KSJT 300625
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
125 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WITH THE SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE OFF TO THE EAST AND ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP BEHIND IT, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY,
THERE ARE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH WINDS BEING THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, AND WILL
UNFORTUNATELY NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN SOME WAY. THE
WEEK SHOULD START OFF WITH THE INTRUSION OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OTHER
THAN LOWER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN US FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. MODELS SHOW A 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
50KT MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR 25 TO 35 MPH
WINDS OCCURRING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD GENERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD ALTHOUGH THE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE, MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND ENTRENCH
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN US, WHICH WOULD PLACE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS, COMBINED WITH A STEADY FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE STALLED BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS ALWAYS, MODEL SOLUTIONS CAN AND WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO THIS WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS AREA, LEAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE LEVEL
FOR A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY OVER
KJCT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND INCREASING/BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH HOW DRY THE FUELS ARE
AND HOW LOW THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ELEVATED AGAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 88 48 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 88 50 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 90 52 83 50 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 89 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 86 48 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 86 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 89 50 77 50 / 10 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP
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