779
FXUS64 KSJT 301723
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WITH THE SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE OFF TO THE EAST AND ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP BEHIND IT, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY,
THERE ARE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH WINDS BEING THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR. RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, AND WILL
UNFORTUNATELY NOT BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
EXPECT MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS
WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM 850 TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE IN THE AREA. A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM/STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL WET
PATTERN SETTING UP(PER GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THE
NBM LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 48 74 53 91 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 50 79 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 52 83 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 47 76 49 90 / 0 0 0 10
SWEETWATER 48 74 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 53 83 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 50 77 52 89 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...AP
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