627
FXUS64 KSJT 302327 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AS OF 2:30 THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE DRYLINE WAS OVER THE HEARTLAND. THE
FRONT HAS LIMITED HIGHS IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WITH A ROUGHLY 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OUR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ALSO BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT,
INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE HAVE HUMDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
WINDS HAVE LED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20. AN RFD IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM FOR THIS AREA.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING, EXITING OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN VERY LOW (<10%) IN
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE DRYLINE STAYS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD APPROACH SAN SABA
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING. IF THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OF SAN SABA
BEFORE THE FRONT CAN MOVE THROUGH, THEN OUR AREA SHOULD BE IN THE
CLEAR FOR ANY STORMS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO
LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN US STARTING TUESDAY
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS
SHOW A 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH A 50KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND CAPE VALUES OF >2000 J/KG DEVELOP.
FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SPECIFICALLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN US,
WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF TEXAS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS,
COMBINED WITH A STEADY FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE
STALLED BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS ALWAYS, MODEL
SOLUTIONS CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO THIS WILL MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRYLINE HAS STALLED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
SAN SABA AND MASON COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING SOUTH INTO
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND AREAS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT, REACHING KSJT AND KBBD AROUND 02Z.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE FRONT TO SLOW ITS PROGRESS OVERNIGHT IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND IT MAY NOT REACH THE I-10 CORRIDOR
UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE DRYLINE MAY
MAKE A PARTIAL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS, COULD
HAVE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN
PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD MORNING TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR THE KJCT TAF SITE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A MENTION. WILL
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND
SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARD SUNSET. PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, EXPECT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 7-10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 48 74 53 91 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 50 79 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 51 83 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 48 76 49 90 / 0 0 0 10
SWEETWATER 48 74 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 54 83 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 51 77 52 89 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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