743
FXUS64 KSJT 310612
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
112 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN US STARTING TUESDAY
WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS
SHOW A 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH A 50KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND CAPE VALUES OF >2000 J/KG DEVELOP.
FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SPECIFICALLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN US,
WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF TEXAS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS,
COMBINED WITH A STEADY FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE
STALLED BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS ALWAYS, MODEL
SOLUTIONS CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO THIS WILL MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS, ENTERING SOUTHERN PARTS
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT
KJCT AND KSOA. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING (BETWEEN 09Z
AND 14Z). THE KJCT TAF SITE MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS, BUT
LIMITED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A MENTION AT THIS POINT. WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, EXPECT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 7-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 52 91 62 / 0 0 10 40
SAN ANGELO 80 54 89 61 / 0 0 10 30
JUNCTION 84 55 88 63 / 0 0 10 20
BROWNWOOD 76 51 88 63 / 0 0 10 50
SWEETWATER 75 54 90 60 / 0 0 0 20
OZONA 83 56 87 60 / 0 0 0 10
BRADY 79 53 88 66 / 0 0 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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