695
FXUS64 KSJT 310918
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
418 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CROCKETT COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY
A DRYLINE WILL SET UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN IRAAN
TO STERLING CITY TO SWEETWATER TO HASKELL LINE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LIKELY WITH STRONG GUSTY DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
THE AIR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS HIGH MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 3500
J/KT AND 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 45 TO 50 KTS. ALL HAZARDS, LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAKING THE STORMY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, SO THERE IS A CHANCE
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES IN.
LATER THIS WEEK, BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, A LARGE UPPER STORM
SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES IN WEST OF EL PASO, THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCE LOOK
GOOD, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FRIDAY NIGHT, ANY DEVIATION FROM TRACK COULD PUT THE REGION IN A
DRYSLOT, AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVE NORTH. COLDER AIR DOES
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS PROGRESS, ENTERING SOUTHERN PARTS
OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT
KJCT AND KSOA. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING (BETWEEN 09Z
AND 14Z). THE KJCT TAF SITE MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS, BUT
LIMITED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A MENTION AT THIS POINT. WILL MONITOR
SATELLITE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, EXPECT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 7-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ALONG AN IRAAN TO STERLING CITY TO SWEETWATER
TO HASKELL LINE, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. TO THE WEST OF
THE DRYLINE, RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST LATE IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH WILL MOVE
IN WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
WEST, THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 75 52 92 62 / 0 0 10 40
SAN ANGELO 80 54 90 61 / 0 0 10 30
JUNCTION 84 55 89 63 / 0 0 10 20
BROWNWOOD 76 51 89 63 / 0 0 10 50
SWEETWATER 75 54 91 60 / 0 0 0 20
OZONA 83 56 88 60 / 0 0 0 10
BRADY 79 53 89 66 / 0 0 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COKE-
CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-STERLING.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19
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