371
FXUS64 KSJT 311748
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CROCKETT COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY
A DRYLINE WILL SET UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN IRAAN
TO STERLING CITY TO SWEETWATER TO HASKELL LINE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LIKELY WITH STRONG GUSTY DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
THE AIR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS HIGH MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 3500
J/KT AND 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 45 TO 50 KTS. ALL HAZARDS, LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A TEMPORARY BREAKING THE STORMY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, SO THERE IS A CHANCE
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES IN.
LATER THIS WEEK, BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, A LARGE UPPER STORM
SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES IN WEST OF EL PASO, THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCE LOOK
GOOD, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FRIDAY NIGHT, ANY DEVIATION FROM TRACK COULD PUT THE REGION IN A
DRYSLOT, AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES
DWINDLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVE NORTH. COLDER AIR DOES
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY LOOKING AT
MVFR CEILINGS, EXCEPT FOR KSOA WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ALONG AN IRAAN TO STERLING CITY TO SWEETWATER
TO HASKELL LINE, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. TO THE WEST OF
THE DRYLINE, RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST LATE IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH WILL MOVE
IN WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
WEST, THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 52 92 63 83 / 0 10 40 0
SAN ANGELO 54 90 62 86 / 0 10 30 0
JUNCTION 55 89 64 91 / 0 10 20 0
BROWNWOOD 51 89 63 86 / 0 10 40 0
SWEETWATER 54 91 60 81 / 0 0 30 0
OZONA 56 88 61 87 / 0 0 10 0
BRADY 53 89 66 86 / 0 10 30 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COKE-
CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-STERLING.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24
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