119
FXUS64 KSJT 311920
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
220 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CROCKETT COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOWER 80S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY, TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND ENHANCING UPLIFT ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO THE REGION FROM AN
EXISTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HALT IT'S PROGRESS AND RETREAT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW 50-60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND FOR
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG, THEREBY INTRODUCING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS THAT THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN US, WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF TEXAS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER NEW MEXICO, THEREBY
PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD MOTION OVER WEST TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, SPECIFICALLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT, COMBINED WITH A STEADY FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE STALLED BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF THIS
POINT, THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL OCCURRING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN PARTICULAR,
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND UPLIFT SHOULD OCCUR. AS ALWAYS, MODEL
SOLUTIONS CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY LOOKING AT
MVFR CEILINGS, EXCEPT FOR KSOA WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ALONG AN IRAAN TO STERLING CITY TO SWEETWATER
TO HASKELL LINE, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. TO THE WEST OF
THE DRYLINE, RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST LATE IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH WILL MOVE
IN WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
WEST, THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 55 89 63 83 / 0 10 40 0
SAN ANGELO 57 89 62 86 / 0 0 30 0
JUNCTION 55 88 64 91 / 0 0 20 0
BROWNWOOD 50 87 63 86 / 0 10 40 0
SWEETWATER 56 89 60 81 / 0 0 30 0
OZONA 60 86 61 87 / 0 0 10 0
BRADY 54 87 66 86 / 0 0 30 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COKE-
CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-STERLING.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24
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