633
FXUS64 KSJT 311944
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
244 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CROCKETT COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BY TOMORROW MORNING, AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A DRY LINE WILL MIX EAST INTO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VERY
DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE, COUPLED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND CROCKETT
COUNTY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE DRYLINE
MAINLY TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BUT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LIFT AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT, SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND NORTH INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE LATEST CAM'S ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT,
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW, ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS TOMORROW
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND ENHANCING UPLIFT ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO THE REGION FROM AN
EXISTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL HALT IT'S PROGRESS AND RETREAT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW 50-60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND FOR
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG, THEREBY INTRODUCING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS THAT THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN US, WHICH WOULD PLACE MOST OF TEXAS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER NEW MEXICO, THEREBY
PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL UPWARD MOTION OVER WEST TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, SPECIFICALLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT, COMBINED WITH A STEADY FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE STALLED BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS OF THIS
POINT, THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL OCCURRING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN PARTICULAR,
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND UPLIFT SHOULD OCCUR. AS ALWAYS, MODEL
SOLUTIONS CAN CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINLY LOOKING AT
MVFR CEILINGS, EXCEPT FOR KSOA WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY AND CROCKETT
COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 PM UNTIL 10 PM TOMORROW EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 55 89 63 83 / 0 10 40 0
SAN ANGELO 57 89 62 86 / 0 0 30 0
JUNCTION 55 88 64 91 / 0 0 20 0
BROWNWOOD 50 87 63 86 / 0 10 40 0
SWEETWATER 56 89 60 81 / 0 0 30 0
OZONA 60 86 61 87 / 0 0 10 0
BRADY 54 87 66 86 / 0 0 30 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COKE-
CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-STERLING.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page