144
FXUS64 KSJT 300511
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
- THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY FOR ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
- THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BIG COUNTRY, AND PORTIONS OF
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND NW PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WPC ALSO HAS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ARE ALSO UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, SO A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES WHO ARE UNDER THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK, AND THE
UPCOMING SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL ADD TO THAT
INCREASE THAT FLOODING POTENTIAL. LATE TONIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING TOWARDS WEST TEXAS AND LOWER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER SET OF STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR LUBBOCK AND PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AND THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
WORKED OVER FROM ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
POSSIBLE RAINFALL, ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INDICTED BY OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. AS OF 5Z, THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. KABI IS THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, SOME
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE ACROSS KSJT AND
KBBD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AREA WIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 55 87 60 / 60 0 0 20
SAN ANGELO 88 54 92 60 / 20 0 0 20
JUNCTION 92 57 95 60 / 10 0 10 20
BROWNWOOD 87 56 91 60 / 70 10 0 20
SWEETWATER 81 56 87 59 / 40 10 0 20
OZONA 88 55 91 61 / 0 0 10 30
BRADY 89 58 92 61 / 40 10 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...41
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