922
FXUS64 KSJT 300920
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOODING AND SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AGAIN.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY (AS OF 330 AM) SHOWS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
AS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL
(30% CHANCE) UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS (15%
CHANCE) UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION, THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE MODERATE RISK (40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLASH FLOODING. MOST OF OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WRAP UP AROUND 10 AM CDT AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND EXITS OUR AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THEN, AS WE MOVE AHEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THIS ROUND SEEMS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
BIG COUNTRY AS WE WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS, A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL (15%
CHANCE) UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS (15%
CHANCE) UP TO 60 MPH ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED
TORNADO (2% CHANCE) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE COVERAGE
INDICATED IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEMS MUCH MORE SPARSE ACROSS
OUR AREA THAN WHAT WE SAW EARLIER TODAY AND YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE STORMY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. THEN, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL (5% CHANCE) REMAINS THE MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WE WILL STILL SEE A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE IN, WHICH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS
IT MOVES THROUGH, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL
TOTALS (1-2") ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK (15% CHANCE) OF SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LASTLY, BY THE LATER HALF OF SUNDAY, A BROAD STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ACT TO PROLONG THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
OVERALL, SEVERAL POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAVE A
BUSY WEEK AHEAD ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INDICTED BY OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. AS OF 5Z, THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. KABI IS THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, SOME
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE ACROSS KSJT AND
KBBD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AREA WIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 82 55 87 60 / 60 0 0 20
SAN ANGELO 89 54 92 60 / 20 0 0 20
JUNCTION 92 57 95 60 / 20 10 10 30
BROWNWOOD 87 56 91 60 / 60 10 0 20
SWEETWATER 80 56 87 59 / 40 10 0 20
OZONA 88 55 91 61 / 0 0 10 30
BRADY 89 58 92 61 / 30 10 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
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