179
FXUS64 KSJT 301910
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
210 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOODING AND SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AGAIN.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND HAVE MOVED OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING TO HELP WITH INSTABILITY, AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO STERLING CITY LINE.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE BIG COUNTRY AND PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
HEARTLAND AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND
MAINLY TODAY, WHICH HAS KEPT A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE, WERE EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AND A LOWER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 50S. BY THURSDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, WITH ELSEWHERE SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLIER IN THE DAY FROM THE RAIN AND STORMS WE
HAVE SEEN ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO. MEANWHILE,
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT, THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS A
BIT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THIS SYSTEM
COULD RESULT IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH KABI AND KBBD POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 15Z ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 56 88 61 74 / 10 0 20 80
SAN ANGELO 54 92 60 80 / 0 0 20 80
JUNCTION 56 96 60 87 / 0 20 20 70
BROWNWOOD 56 91 61 79 / 10 0 20 80
SWEETWATER 56 87 60 71 / 0 0 20 80
OZONA 56 91 62 81 / 0 0 20 70
BRADY 58 93 62 83 / 0 10 20 80
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HASKELL-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...TP
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