026
FXUS64 KSJT 010533
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AGAIN.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND HAVE MOVED OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING TO HELP WITH INSTABILITY, AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO STERLING CITY
LINE. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT HAS HOWEVER DECREASED WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE DOWN-TREND IN POTENTIAL IN RECENT HIGH-
RES MODEL RUNS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE BIG COUNTRY AND PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN HEARTLAND AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND
HEARTLAND MAINLY TODAY, WHICH HAS KEPT A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE, WERE EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AND A LOWER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 50S. BY THURSDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, WITH ELSEWHERE SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLIER IN THE DAY FROM THE RAIN AND STORMS WE
HAVE SEEN ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD COLORADO.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY, TO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT, THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS
A BIT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 88 61 71 52 / 0 20 80 30
SAN ANGELO 92 60 76 54 / 0 20 90 40
JUNCTION 96 60 84 57 / 20 20 80 60
BROWNWOOD 91 61 76 54 / 0 20 90 50
SWEETWATER 87 60 69 51 / 0 20 80 20
OZONA 91 62 79 57 / 0 20 80 50
BRADY 93 62 80 57 / 10 20 90 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...20
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