148
FXUS64 KSJT 010747
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
247 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A SAN SABA TO OZONA LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ALSO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 LATER
TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
LEAVE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEWPOINT VALUES/SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER. OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS TO OUR EAST IS
ADVECTING IN DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID 60S, BUT AS MIXING
DEVELOPS BY LATE MORNING, DEWPOINT VALUES ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND HEARTLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 40S.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BETTER ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND
IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WHERE MORE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED
RECENTLY. WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACTING AS FOCI FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WILL KEEP A LOW
(20%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO OZONA LINE. WILL
ALSO KEEP A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-20
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A MCS MAY DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH, AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, SHOULD ANY
STORMS REACH THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF I-20, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL IN THAT AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN ACTIVE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT
LEAST A FEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AND
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COMBINES WITH A COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE(PW VALUES
RISING). THE HI- RES MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A MERTZON
TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE(SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK). THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM NORTH OF THIS LINE.
ALSO, THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING DUE TO PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AS A RESULT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO THE DETAILS, BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE, INCREASING PW VALUES AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN(SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES) FOR POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS(LESS THAN 15%
CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INSTABILITY. GOING WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 61 71 52 / 0 10 80 30
SAN ANGELO 93 61 76 54 / 0 10 90 40
JUNCTION 95 61 84 57 / 20 20 80 60
BROWNWOOD 92 61 76 54 / 10 20 90 50
SWEETWATER 89 60 69 51 / 0 10 80 20
OZONA 92 61 79 57 / 10 20 80 50
BRADY 94 61 80 57 / 10 20 90 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20
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