199
FXUS64 KSJT 011832
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
132 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL, AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED,
ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR IS THE SLOWEST WITH REGARD TO
THE FRONT, WITH THE FRONT STILL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM NEST IS A FEW HOURS FASTER, WITH THE FRONT MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF A MERTZON, TO SAN ANGELO, TO SAN SABA LINE. IF
THE FRONT IS AN HOUR OR TWO SLOWER, SIMILAR TO THE HRRR, THIS
ACTIVITY COULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON SAN ANGELO. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN ACTIVE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT
LEAST A FEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AND
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COMBINES WITH A COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE(PW VALUES
RISING). THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A MERTZON
TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE(SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK). THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM NORTH OF THIS LINE.
ALSO, THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING DUE TO PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AS A RESULT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TO FAR OUT
TO GET INTO THE DETAILS, BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE, INCREASING PW VALUES AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN(SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES) FOR POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS(LESS THAN 15%
CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME INSTABILITY. GOING WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB 30 GROUP AT KSOA, BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
OTHER SITES. STRATUS WILL APPROACH KSOA AND KBBD TOWARD DAYBREAK,
BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE MVFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF THE SITES.
STRATUS WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT, SO HAVE LEFT A
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 71 52 73 / 20 60 10 0
SAN ANGELO 60 76 54 76 / 10 70 20 10
JUNCTION 61 82 57 76 / 20 80 50 10
BROWNWOOD 60 77 54 76 / 20 70 30 0
SWEETWATER 60 69 51 73 / 20 60 10 0
OZONA 61 79 57 76 / 20 60 30 10
BRADY 62 78 57 75 / 20 80 40 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...DANIELS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page