103
FXUS64 KSJT 011843
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
143 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED,
ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR IS THE SLOWEST WITH REGARD TO
THE FRONT, WITH THE FRONT STILL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM NEST IS A FEW HOURS FASTER, WITH THE FRONT MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF A MERTZON, TO SAN ANGELO, TO SAN SABA LINE. IF
THE FRONT IS AN HOUR OR TWO SLOWER, SIMILAR TO THE HRRR, THIS
ACTIVITY COULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON SAN ANGELO. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SERIES
OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN WHERE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, AND SOME
RECENT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT WE GENERALLY CARRIED ONLY CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE WE KEPT SOME AREAS OF "SHOWERS LIKELY".
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP, GENERALLY WE ARE EXPECTING
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
MERTZON TO SAN SABA LINE, AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF AN ABILENE TO STERLING CITY LINE FOR FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH OUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S LOWER-TO-MID 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THE DRIER MODEL TREND MENTIONED
EARLIER STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE, THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE AND
SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB 30 GROUP AT KSOA, BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
OTHER SITES. STRATUS WILL APPROACH KSOA AND KBBD TOWARD DAYBREAK,
BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE MVFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF THE SITES.
STRATUS WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT, SO HAVE LEFT A
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 71 52 73 / 20 60 10 0
SAN ANGELO 60 76 54 76 / 10 70 20 10
JUNCTION 61 82 57 76 / 20 80 50 10
BROWNWOOD 60 77 54 76 / 20 70 30 0
SWEETWATER 60 69 51 73 / 20 60 10 0
OZONA 61 79 57 76 / 20 60 30 10
BRADY 62 78 57 75 / 20 80 40 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...DANIELS
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