450
FXUS64 KSJT 020757
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
257 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED, ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT
WILL THEN STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR IS THE
SLOWEST WITH REGARD TO THE FRONT, WITH THE FRONT STILL ACROSS THE
CONCHO VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NAM NEST IS A FEW HOURS
FASTER, WITH THE FRONT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS
TIME, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
A MERTZON, TO SAN ANGELO, TO SAN SABA LINE. IF THE FRONT IS AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER, SIMILAR TO THE HRRR, THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT ON SAN ANGELO. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S, EXCEPT ACROSS THE I-10
CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, AND A DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE LOW TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
ABLE TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THE LOWER 40S F SUNDAY MORNING, INTO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING,
AND INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION, A SURFACE PACIFIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ACTING
AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES MONDAY, WE MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AND ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE MOST
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT, PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER, THE TIMING COULD VERY WELL
CHANGE AS WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT. IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY/TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH, BUT NOT ENTIRELY EXIT THE FORECAST. WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH, WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
MVFR STRATUS RETURNS EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO KABI BEFORE SUNRISE, KSJT AND KBBD MID MORNING, AND KSOA AND
KJCT MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT KSOA AND KJCT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STRATUS RISE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR KJCT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 49 73 49 / 60 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 50 76 49 / 70 10 0 0
JUNCTION 81 55 77 50 / 80 40 10 0
BROWNWOOD 74 50 75 48 / 70 30 0 0
SWEETWATER 68 49 72 49 / 60 10 0 0
OZONA 76 53 77 53 / 60 20 10 10
BRADY 75 53 75 48 / 80 30 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page