545
FXUS64 KSJT 021712
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF I-20 BY DAYBREAK, MOVING ALONG A A BIG
LAKE TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE AROUND 10 AM, AND ALONG AN
OZONA TO BRADY LINE TO SABA LINE AROUND 2 PM.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH 2000 TO
3500 J/KG MUCAPES BY 1 PM ALONG/SOUTH OF A BIG LAKE TO SAN ANGELO
TO BROWNWOOD LINE. THE HIGHEST OF 3000-3500 J/KG ARE ALONG I-10.
0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE 40 TO 50 KTS, SO CERTAINLY SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. SPC DAY 1 HAS A SLIGHT RISK FROM CROSS PLAINS TO SAN
ANGELO TO NORTH OF OZONA, WITH AN ENHANCE RISK FROM JUNCTION TO
MASON TO SAN SABA, AND SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING 1-2 PM, ALONG/SOUTH OF BIG LAKE TO
BROWNWOOD LINE, AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF
A TORNADO.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY. SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE MODELS INDICATING ONLY FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT THE THINKING IS MOST OF CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM.
IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN THE BIG COUNTRY TO
80 ALONG I-20. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE BIG
COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY TO LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG I-10 AND THE NW
HILL COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, AND A DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE LOW TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
ABLE TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THE LOWER 40S F SUNDAY MORNING, INTO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING,
AND INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION, A SURFACE PACIFIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ACTING
AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES MONDAY, WE MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AND ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE MOST
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT, PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER, THE TIMING COULD VERY WELL
CHANGE AS WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT. IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY/TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH, BUT NOT ENTIRELY EXIT THE FORECAST. WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH, WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT THE KABI AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE LARGELY EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND SUNSET. WILL GENERALLY
USE TIMING FROM THE CAMS AS A FIRST THOUGHT ON TIMING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IFR AND MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOST AREAS
WILL BE VFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 49 73 49 / 80 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 75 50 76 50 / 40 20 0 0
JUNCTION 82 55 77 49 / 70 40 10 0
BROWNWOOD 76 50 75 47 / 60 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 68 49 72 50 / 60 0 0 0
OZONA 78 53 77 53 / 50 30 10 10
BRADY 77 53 75 49 / 70 40 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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