764
FXUS64 KSJT 021824
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
124 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WILL MAKE THIS QUICK SINCE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL OF COURSE BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
LATEST CAMS FOCUS MUCH OF THE STORM CHANCES IN THE NOW-00Z TIME
FRAME AND ARE PRETTY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
BORDERS OF THE AREA FOR ANYTHING AFTER 00Z. WILL LEAN THIS
DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING EVEN WELL NORTH
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, BUT MAIN
FOCUS AND THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, INSTABILITY ABOVE 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS BUT TORNADO RISK IS NOT ZERO.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TAKES
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT, LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NOT GOING TO ARGUE WITH THE HIGHS IN
THE 70S THE MODEL BLENDS ARE FORECASTING FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AFTER A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT, AND A DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE LOW TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
ABLE TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THE LOWER 40S F SUNDAY MORNING, INTO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING,
AND INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION, A SURFACE PACIFIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ACTING
AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES MONDAY, WE MAY SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AND ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE MOST
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT, PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER, THE TIMING COULD VERY WELL
CHANGE AS WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT. IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY/TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH, BUT NOT ENTIRELY EXIT THE FORECAST. WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH, WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT THE KABI AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE LARGELY EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND SUNSET. WILL GENERALLY
USE TIMING FROM THE CAMS AS A FIRST THOUGHT ON TIMING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, IFR AND MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOST AREAS
WILL BE VFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 49 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 50 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 54 79 49 79 / 40 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 50 76 47 77 / 20 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 49 74 50 76 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 53 79 53 76 / 20 0 10 10
BRADY 52 76 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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