026
FXUS64 KSJT 022319
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WILL MAKE THIS QUICK SINCE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL OF COURSE BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
LATEST CAMS FOCUS MUCH OF THE STORM CHANCES IN THE NOW-00Z TIME
FRAME AND ARE PRETTY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
BORDERS OF THE AREA FOR ANYTHING AFTER 00Z. WILL LEAN THIS
DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING EVEN WELL NORTH
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, BUT MAIN
FOCUS AND THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, INSTABILITY ABOVE 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS BUT TORNADO RISK IS NOT ZERO.
ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TAKES
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT, LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NOT GOING TO ARGUE WITH THE HIGHS IN
THE 70S THE MODEL BLENDS ARE FORECASTING FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS PAST
WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-DAY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. AS OF NOW, THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
OR TWO. THERE WILL ALSO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS THAT LINGER OVER A GIVEN AREA WHILE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH, BUT NOT ENTIRELY EXIT THE FORECAST. WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH, WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A KSOA TO KJCT LINE, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
SUN. NE WINDS OF AROUND 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL
WEAKEN TO AROUND 8-12 KT BY AROUND 02Z, AND THEN MOSTLY BELOW 8 KT
BY 10Z. AFTER 15Z, NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KT
ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 49 74 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 50 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 54 79 49 79 / 40 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 50 76 47 77 / 20 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 49 74 50 76 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 53 79 52 76 / 10 0 10 10
BRADY 52 76 49 76 / 20 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SJH
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