583
FXUS64 KSJT 030836
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. WITH NEARLY FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY TO UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 TO THE SOUTH. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS PAST
WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY CALM AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID-DAY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. AS OF NOW, THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
OR TWO. THERE WILL ALSO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS THAT LINGER OVER A GIVEN AREA WHILE
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH, BUT NOT ENTIRELY EXIT THE FORECAST. WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH, WITH
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 74 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 79 51 79 58 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 79 50 80 57 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNWOOD 76 48 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 74 51 75 57 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 79 53 76 60 / 0 10 10 20
BRADY 77 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...04
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