074
FXUS64 KSJT 031050
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
550 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. WITH NEARLY FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY TO UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 TO THE SOUTH. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH
WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
BY MONDAY MORNING, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATH/SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF
ANY, ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF THE LOW FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, BUT BOTH MODELS
SHOW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE SHORTWAVES AND
ACCOMPANIED UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START AS DISCRETE
STORMS/CLUSTERS, THAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS
THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING FROM THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A STERLING CITY TO BROWNWOOD LINE.
EVENTUALLY, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, DEPENDING ON THE
OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODIC LOW END (20%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 74 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 79 51 79 58 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 79 50 80 57 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNWOOD 76 48 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 74 51 75 57 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 79 53 76 60 / 0 10 10 20
BRADY 77 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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