514
FXUS64 KSJT 031843
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
143 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE SEVERE
WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
SUNDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, AND HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH
WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
BY MONDAY MORNING, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATH/SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, IF
ANY, ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE PATH
OF THE LOW FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, BUT BOTH MODELS
SHOW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE SHORTWAVES AND
ACCOMPANIED UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXES WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START AS DISCRETE
STORMS/CLUSTERS, THAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS
THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING FROM THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A STERLING CITY TO BROWNWOOD LINE.
EVENTUALLY, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, DEPENDING ON THE
OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODIC LOW END (20%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE
MOST PART, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 50 78 58 69 / 0 0 10 60
SAN ANGELO 50 80 60 76 / 0 10 10 60
JUNCTION 50 80 58 75 / 0 10 10 60
BROWNWOOD 48 79 55 71 / 0 0 10 60
SWEETWATER 51 78 58 70 / 0 10 20 60
OZONA 54 76 60 77 / 0 10 20 50
BRADY 50 79 57 71 / 0 0 10 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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