593
FXUS64 KSJT 032003
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
303 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
SUNDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, AND HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A
POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG A
SHARPENING DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
MODELS CONTINUE A INDICATE A LINE OF STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN
FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 50 78 58 69 / 0 0 10 60
SAN ANGELO 50 80 60 76 / 0 10 10 60
JUNCTION 50 80 58 75 / 0 10 10 60
BROWNWOOD 48 79 55 71 / 0 0 10 60
SWEETWATER 51 78 58 70 / 0 10 20 60
OZONA 54 76 60 77 / 0 10 20 50
BRADY 50 79 57 71 / 0 0 10 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
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