234
FXUS64 KSJT 040645
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
145 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST APPROACHES THE AREA, AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES ALOFT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE, AND WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS, BUT WITH DRY STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, DO NOT
THINK THESE WILL YIELD ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, AND WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE IF THEY OCCUR. OTHERWISE, WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE, AND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH TONIGHT, HELPING TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE INCREASES, THE LLJ CRANKS UP, AND THE UPPER
LOW INCHES CLOSER TO THE AREA, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF AN ABILENE TO
SONORA LINE. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A
POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG A
SHARPENING DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
MODELS CONTINUE A INDICATE A LINE OF STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN
FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL THEY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GUSTS WILL REMAIN
AT KSJT AND POSSIBLY KABI. AT KSOA, KJCT, AND KBBD, EXPECT THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SHOULD LOSE THE
GUSTS THERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 78 58 67 60 / 0 20 90 100
SAN ANGELO 80 60 73 60 / 10 20 80 90
JUNCTION 81 60 73 62 / 10 10 70 90
BROWNWOOD 79 55 68 60 / 0 10 90 90
SWEETWATER 78 57 67 58 / 10 30 90 100
OZONA 76 60 76 61 / 10 20 60 100
BRADY 80 58 70 61 / 0 10 80 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20
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