670
FXUS64 KSJT 041111
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST APPROACHES THE AREA, AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES ALOFT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE, AND WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS, BUT WITH DRY STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, DO NOT
THINK THESE WILL YIELD ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, AND WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE IF THEY OCCUR. OTHERWISE, WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE, AND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH TONIGHT, HELPING TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT, AS MOISTURE INCREASES, THE LLJ CRANKS UP, AND THE UPPER
LOW INCHES CLOSER TO THE AREA, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF AN ABILENE TO
SONORA LINE. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...
A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION MONDAY, WITH A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING IT, THROUGH
WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION DOES GET UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH
GFS MUCAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE, WITH PERHAPS UP TO
3000 J/KG IN CROCKETT/SUTTON COUNTIES. WHILE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY, AS THE STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY WELL
EXTEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH WITH DRIER WEST
WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE, AND EVEN A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY. WPC ALSO HAS A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY MONDAY, WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS. WITH
SOILS SATURATED, PARTICULARLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, THERE COULD BE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OKLAHOMA THEN SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME SCT CLOUDS
FROM 5K TO 10K FEET AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, EXCEPT THAT WE MAY
SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN SITES BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 78 58 67 60 / 0 20 90 100
SAN ANGELO 80 60 73 60 / 10 20 80 90
JUNCTION 81 60 73 62 / 10 10 70 90
BROWNWOOD 79 55 68 60 / 0 10 90 90
SWEETWATER 78 57 67 58 / 10 30 90 100
OZONA 76 60 76 61 / 10 20 60 100
BRADY 80 58 70 61 / 0 10 80 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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