774
FXUS64 KSJT 041949
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, AS WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASE, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT, AS LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER DYNAMICS
COME INTO PLAY, AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...
A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION MONDAY, WITH A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING IT, THROUGH
WEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION DOES GET UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH
GFS MUCAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE, WITH PERHAPS UP TO
3000 J/KG IN CROCKETT/SUTTON COUNTIES. WHILE A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY, AS THE STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY WELL
EXTEND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH WITH DRIER WEST
WINDS MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE, AND EVEN A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY. WPC ALSO HAS A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY MONDAY, WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS. WITH
SOILS SATURATED, PARTICULARLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, THERE COULD BE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OKLAHOMA THEN SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT, THEN STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WILL INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. EXPECT BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
DECREASING BY THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 58 67 60 80 / 20 80 100 90
SAN ANGELO 60 73 61 82 / 20 70 100 60
JUNCTION 60 74 63 84 / 20 70 90 70
BROWNWOOD 56 69 60 81 / 10 80 90 100
SWEETWATER 58 67 59 78 / 40 80 100 70
OZONA 61 78 61 81 / 30 60 100 30
BRADY 58 69 61 81 / 20 70 90 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24
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