291
FXUS64 KSJT 042348
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
648 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, AS WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASE, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TOMORROW EVENING/OVERNIGHT, AS LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER DYNAMICS
COME INTO PLAY, AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CLUSTERS AND/OR BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE SUCH THAT LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WE'LL
ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP MONDAY NIGHT. BUT
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES GREATER THAN A 50%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ENDING OUR RAIN
CHANCES. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LEAVING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 11KT OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. THE LOWEST CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSOA IN THE
MORNING, WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. EXACT
LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE STUCK
WITH PROB30S FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 78 58 67 60 / 0 20 80 100
SAN ANGELO 80 60 73 61 / 10 20 70 100
JUNCTION 81 60 74 63 / 10 20 70 90
BROWNWOOD 79 56 69 60 / 0 10 80 90
SWEETWATER 78 58 67 59 / 10 40 80 100
OZONA 76 61 78 61 / 10 30 60 100
BRADY 80 58 69 61 / 0 20 70 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...AP
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