935
FXUS64 KSJT 050541
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1241 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, AS WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS INSTABILITY INCREASE, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TOMORROW
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, AS LIFT INCREASES AND BETTER DYNAMICS COME INTO
PLAY, AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CLUSTERS AND/OR BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE SUCH THAT LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WE'LL
ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP MONDAY NIGHT. BUT
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES GREATER THAN A 50%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ENDING OUR RAIN
CHANCES. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL
LEAVE MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENTLY LATE THIS EVENING, WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
LOW CLOUDS AT VFR HEIGHTS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY AS
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH LOW END MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SO HAVE
TRENDED CIGS DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT, AND NOW SHOW SCATTERED MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING MONDAY, DUE TO A PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 60 80 54 / 80 100 80 0
SAN ANGELO 73 61 82 51 / 70 100 50 0
JUNCTION 74 63 84 54 / 70 90 70 10
BROWNWOOD 69 60 82 53 / 80 90 90 0
SWEETWATER 67 59 79 54 / 80 100 50 0
OZONA 78 61 81 54 / 60 100 30 0
BRADY 69 61 82 55 / 70 90 90 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...20
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