138
FXUS64 KSJT 050944
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
444 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AZ, WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NM BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
THIS LOW, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURES TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD LIFT IN THIS WARM ADVECTION SET-UP WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT, AND SCATTERED MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN
OUR AREA. TO OUR WEST, MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED,
LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES COULD STILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY WEST OF A STERLING CITY TO OZONA LINE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AGAIN, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE PARENT
LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A
LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS, AND THEN MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THESE STORMS, MAINLY
NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. WITH PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY HAVING
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY, HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
...ON GOING THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. LINE OF STORMS,
LIKELY ALONG AN THROCKMORTON TO ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA
LINE AROUND 7 AM, WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD. BOTH NAM NEST AND
HRRR ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD, WITH MOST OF THE STORMS EXITING
EASTERN COUNTIES (BROWN AND SABA) 9 TO 10 AM. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. PROBABLY MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LINE. SPC HAS A 2 PERCENT RISK WITHIN 25 MILES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE,
WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF I-20
UNTIL NOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TO LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND THE LOW,
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD MAY ALSO BE A LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT. ONLY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENTLY LATE THIS EVENING, WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.
LOW CLOUDS AT VFR HEIGHTS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY AS
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MODELS
HAVE ALSO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH LOW END MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SO HAVE
TRENDED CIGS DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT, AND NOW SHOW SCATTERED MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING MONDAY, DUE TO A PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 69 61 80 54 / 70 90 80 0
SAN ANGELO 73 59 81 51 / 60 80 50 0
JUNCTION 73 61 83 53 / 60 80 70 10
BROWNWOOD 71 60 82 53 / 70 90 90 0
SWEETWATER 69 59 78 54 / 70 90 50 0
OZONA 77 59 81 53 / 50 80 30 0
BRADY 69 61 82 55 / 60 80 90 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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