602
FXUS64 KSJT 051806
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
106 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AZ, WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NM BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
THIS LOW, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURES TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BROAD LIFT IN THIS WARM ADVECTION SET-UP WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT, AND SCATTERED MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE. WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN
OUR AREA. TO OUR WEST, MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED,
LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES COULD STILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY WEST OF A STERLING CITY TO OZONA LINE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AGAIN, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE PARENT
LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A
LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS, AND THEN MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THESE STORMS, MAINLY
NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS. WITH PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY HAVING
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY, HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
...ON GOING THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
MORNING, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. LINE OF STORMS,
LIKELY ALONG AN THROCKMORTON TO ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA
LINE AROUND 7 AM, WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD. BOTH NAM NEST AND
HRRR ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD, WITH MOST OF THE STORMS EXITING
EASTERN COUNTIES (BROWN AND SABA) 9 TO 10 AM. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. PROBABLY MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LINE. SPC HAS A 2 PERCENT RISK WITHIN 25 MILES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE,
WITH A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF I-20
UNTIL NOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WILL MOVE
SOUTH TO LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND THE LOW,
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD MAY ALSO BE A LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT. ONLY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING-GENERALLY
AFTER 04Z- TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF TSRA AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 81 55 80 / 90 80 0 10
SAN ANGELO 59 83 51 84 / 80 50 0 10
JUNCTION 61 86 52 85 / 80 70 0 10
BROWNWOOD 60 84 52 84 / 90 90 0 10
SWEETWATER 60 78 55 79 / 90 50 0 10
OZONA 60 81 53 82 / 80 30 0 10
BRADY 61 85 54 83 / 80 90 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...42
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