509
FXUS64 KSJT 052248
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
548 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THEN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
STILL LOOKING AN ACTIVE 12-24 HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY- EXTENDING WEST
TO EAST FROM ANDREWS TO SOUTH OF BIG SPRING TO NEAR STERLING CITY-
IS ALSO NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MEANWHILE, WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING LOOKS RELATIVELY
QUIET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA- WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
IN THE PERMIAN BASIN DOWN INTO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU ALONG THE DRY
LINE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THOUGH WHERE
THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP
THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN MU CAPE
VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 50 KNOTS. CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST- AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THESE STORMS COULD BE
IN THE FORM OF BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS BEFORE
CONGEALING INTO A SQUALL LINE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN
THE HEAVIEST STORMS AND WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THE
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING BACK INTO NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL HOWEVER, SO NBM LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS RIDGING ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST HAS BROUGHT STRONG EAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS ACROSS KSOA AND KJCT AROUND 0Z TO 1Z.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING HAZARDS: LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER, MVFR
CEILINGS, AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL UNTIL 18Z TOMORROW
(TUESDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 61 81 55 80 / 90 80 0 10
SAN ANGELO 59 83 51 84 / 80 50 0 10
JUNCTION 61 86 52 85 / 80 70 0 10
BROWNWOOD 60 84 52 84 / 80 90 0 10
SWEETWATER 60 78 55 79 / 90 50 0 10
OZONA 60 81 53 82 / 80 30 0 10
BRADY 61 85 54 83 / 80 80 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
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