822
FXUS64 KSJT 061124
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THEN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
SPREADING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL USE THE
LATEST CAMS FOR A ROUGH IDEA ON THE TIMING OF THE BACK END OF THE
CONVECTION, WITH MOST OF IT CLEARING THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY 15Z.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO
TOWARDS THE TEXAS BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODELS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW SOME OF THIS AS FAR SOUTH AS
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON SO WILL MENTION SOME SMALL POPS UP THERE.
OTHERWISE, PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE, BEFORE A LITTLE STRONGER
FRONT FOLLOWS FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES STILL
SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NOWHERE NEAR THE SAME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS WE HAVE OUT THERE THIS MORNING, BUT ENOUGH
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES. ONCE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 12 TO 16 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 55 80 56 / 80 0 10 20
SAN ANGELO 82 52 84 55 / 50 0 0 10
JUNCTION 84 54 87 57 / 70 0 10 10
BROWNWOOD 82 53 84 56 / 90 0 10 10
SWEETWATER 78 55 79 55 / 60 0 10 10
OZONA 80 53 84 57 / 20 0 0 20
BRADY 82 55 84 58 / 80 0 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-
SHACKELFORD-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...DANIELS
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