427
FXUS64 KSJT 061804
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
104 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THEN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
SPREADING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL USE THE
LATEST CAMS FOR A ROUGH IDEA ON THE TIMING OF THE BACK END OF THE
CONVECTION, WITH MOST OF IT CLEARING THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY 15Z.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO
TOWARDS THE TEXAS BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODELS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW SOME OF THIS AS FAR SOUTH AS
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON SO WILL MENTION SOME SMALL POPS UP THERE.
OTHERWISE, PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE, BEFORE A LITTLE STRONGER
FRONT FOLLOWS FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES STILL
SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NOWHERE NEAR THE SAME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS WE HAVE OUT THERE THIS MORNING, BUT ENOUGH
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES. ONCE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KABI TERMINAL. KABI SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KABI OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 55 79 55 75 / 0 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 52 84 55 78 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 53 87 56 82 / 0 10 10 20
BROWNWOOD 54 83 55 78 / 0 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 54 79 54 75 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 54 83 56 79 / 0 0 10 20
BRADY 55 84 56 79 / 0 10 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42
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