710
FXUS64 KSJT 061823
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
123 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THEN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
SPREADING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL USE THE
LATEST CAMS FOR A ROUGH IDEA ON THE TIMING OF THE BACK END OF THE
CONVECTION, WITH MOST OF IT CLEARING THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY 15Z.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO
TOWARDS THE TEXAS BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODELS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW SOME OF THIS AS FAR SOUTH AS
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON SO WILL MENTION SOME SMALL POPS UP THERE.
OTHERWISE, PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE, BEFORE A LITTLE STRONGER
FRONT FOLLOWS FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
EXPECT GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST
TO OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH, WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION
ON THURSDAY, THEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, BUT AT THIS TIME
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KABI TERMINAL. KABI SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KABI OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 55 79 55 75 / 0 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 52 84 55 78 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 53 87 56 82 / 0 10 10 20
BROWNWOOD 54 83 55 78 / 0 10 10 10
SWEETWATER 54 79 54 75 / 0 0 10 10
OZONA 54 83 56 79 / 0 0 10 20
BRADY 55 84 56 79 / 0 10 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...42
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