866
FXUS64 KSJT 240519
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
FEELS LIKE EARLY SUMMER ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FINISH MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEFORE SUNSET. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF AN MERTZON TO ABILENE TO ALBANY LINE
THIS EVENING. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN AND A FEW STORMS MAY MAKE INTO THE MARGINAL RISK
AREA, MAINLY NORTHWEST CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE, GOING
WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
70 TO 75 WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY/NW
CONCHO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE BEFORE
THEY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT, WITH
A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE MEMORIAL DAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY
BETWEEN I-20 AND I-10 INTO TUESDAY. GFS MUCAPES INCREASE INTO THE
2500 TO 3000 J/KG MONDAY AND 4000 J/KG TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY ALSO POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITAL WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO BE UNSTABLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH COULD DECREASE
INSTABILITY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S THIS
WEEKEND, AND IN THE 80S TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KABI AND KSJT TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS KBBD,
KSOA, AND KJCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS,
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 73 95 70 88 / 10 10 40 60
SAN ANGELO 71 97 70 95 / 0 10 30 40
JUNCTION 69 97 70 95 / 0 0 20 40
BROWNWOOD 70 95 70 90 / 0 10 30 60
SWEETWATER 73 97 69 88 / 10 20 40 50
OZONA 70 94 72 93 / 0 0 30 20
BRADY 71 95 72 93 / 0 0 30 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...TP
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