559
FXUS64 KSJT 240726
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
226 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AS HIGH AS 103 THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT TO
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR TODAY, WIT THE SLIGHT RISK CONTAINED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY/NW
CONCHO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE BEFORE
THEY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT, WITH
A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE MEMORIAL DAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY
BETWEEN I-20 AND I-10 INTO TUESDAY. GFS MUCAPES INCREASE INTO THE
2500 TO 3000 J/KG MONDAY AND 4000 J/KG TUESDAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY ALSO POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITAL WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO BE UNSTABLE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH COULD DECREASE
INSTABILITY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S THIS
WEEKEND, AND IN THE 80S TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KABI AND KSJT TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS KBBD,
KSOA, AND KJCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS,
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 99 73 95 70 / 0 10 10 40
SAN ANGELO 101 71 97 70 / 0 0 10 30
JUNCTION 98 69 97 70 / 0 0 0 20
BROWNWOOD 97 71 95 70 / 0 0 10 30
SWEETWATER 102 73 97 69 / 10 10 20 40
OZONA 97 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 30
BRADY 97 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...TP
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