121
FXUS64 KSJT 240831
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AS HIGH AS 103 THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT TO
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR TODAY, WIT THE SLIGHT RISK CONTAINED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE, WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA EACH DAY. STORMS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO FORM
INITIALLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW. THESE STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR AREA IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE VARYING POSITIONS OF THE DRYLINE, IMPACTING OUR STORM
CHANCES. IF THE DRYLINE STAYS FURTHER WEST, WE'LL SEE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGAN TO COOL DOWN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARIES, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK DECENT
ENOUGH THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT WEEK.
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WE WILL ALSO BE
WATCHING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST
PART OF OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL COME FROM ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE
STORMS, MEANING SOME AREAS COULD SEE 5+ INCHES IF THEY ARE HIT
MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. RAINFALL TOTALS AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KABI AND KSJT TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS KBBD,
KSOA, AND KJCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS,
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 99 73 95 70 / 0 10 10 40
SAN ANGELO 101 71 97 70 / 0 0 10 30
JUNCTION 98 69 97 70 / 0 0 0 20
BROWNWOOD 97 71 95 70 / 0 0 10 30
SWEETWATER 102 73 97 69 / 10 10 20 40
OZONA 97 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 30
BRADY 97 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...TP
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