762
FXUS64 KSJT 241902
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
202 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT MAY 24
2025
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE FT STOCKTON AND PERMIAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO AFFECT STERLING CITY,
SWEETWATER, ROBY, ANSON, HASKELL THIS EVENING. WITH VERY HIGH
SBCAPES IN THE 4000-4500 J/KG RANGE, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUNDAY, A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE EVENING,
AND AREAS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN, WITH LOW 70S OVERNIGHT AND MID AND UPPER 90S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE, WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA EACH DAY. STORMS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO FORM
INITIALLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW. THESE STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR AREA IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE VARYING POSITIONS OF THE DRYLINE, IMPACTING OUR STORM
CHANCES. IF THE DRYLINE STAYS FURTHER WEST, WE'LL SEE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGAN TO COOL DOWN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARIES, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK DECENT
ENOUGH THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT WEEK.
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WE WILL ALSO BE
WATCHING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO
SATURATED SOILS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST
PART OF OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL COME FROM ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE
STORMS, MEANING SOME AREAS COULD SEE 5+ INCHES IF THEY ARE HIT
MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. RAINFALL TOTALS AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. KSJT AND KABI
MAY SEE WIND PICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS 4Z AS A 40 TO 45K 850MB LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND PARTIALLY MIXES TO THE GROUND. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OTHERWISE EXPECTED MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS. KJCT MAY SEE BRIEF PATCHY MVFR STRATUS SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 74 96 69 87 / 10 10 60 60
SAN ANGELO 72 97 68 92 / 10 10 40 40
JUNCTION 70 97 69 92 / 0 10 30 50
BROWNWOOD 71 95 69 87 / 0 10 40 70
SWEETWATER 73 97 68 89 / 30 20 50 50
OZONA 71 95 71 93 / 10 10 30 20
BRADY 72 95 70 89 / 0 10 40 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...04
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