071
FXUS64 KSJT 250502
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1202 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY EARLY TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT MAY 24
2025
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE FT STOCKTON AND PERMIAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO AFFECT STERLING CITY,
SWEETWATER, ROBY, ANSON, HASKELL THIS EVENING. WITH VERY HIGH
SBCAPES IN THE 4000-4500 J/KG RANGE, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUNDAY, A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE EVENING,
AND AREAS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN, WITH LOW 70S OVERNIGHT AND MID AND UPPER 90S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHER PLAINS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA. UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SO
INSTABILITY WONT REALLY BE AN ISSUE. CAP WILL NOT ALSO BE A HUGE
ISSUE, BUT WILL STILL TAKE A LITTLE WORK FROM SOME SORT OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY (MOSTLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) OR SOME SORT OF COOLING
ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH OF THESE ARE HARD
TO PIN DOWN MORE THAN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE, SO WE ARE STUCK HAVING
TO BROADBRUSH POPS MORE THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO IN MANY TIME
PERIODS.
A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS BROADBRUSH IDEA. FIRST WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH SEVERAL OF THE CAMS SHOWING
A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
RED RIVER AND DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO AT LEAST THE BIG COUNTRY AND
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CONCHO VALLEY.
THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS
INTO THE AREA. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING WITH THIS
BOUNDARY, BUT STILL ABLE TO AT LEAST PUT THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE
AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE INSTEAD OF
AREAS FARTHER NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE FROM WHERE THEY ARE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
TAF SITES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD MOVE THROUGH KABI AND KSJT IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BRINGING A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT. SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING,
IMPACTING KSOA AND KJCT FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 96 75 96 69 / 0 10 10 60
SAN ANGELO 100 74 97 68 / 0 10 10 40
JUNCTION 97 71 97 69 / 0 0 10 30
BROWNWOOD 94 73 95 69 / 0 0 10 40
SWEETWATER 103 75 97 68 / 0 30 20 50
OZONA 98 73 95 71 / 10 10 10 30
BRADY 94 73 95 70 / 0 0 10 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...AP
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