536
FXUS64 KSJT 250841
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY EARLY TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT MAY 24
2025
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE FT STOCKTON AND PERMIAN
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE EAST ENOUGH TO AFFECT STERLING CITY,
SWEETWATER, ROBY, ANSON, HASKELL THIS EVENING. WITH VERY HIGH
SBCAPES IN THE 4000-4500 J/KG RANGE, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUNDAY, A SIMILAR
SITUATION WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE EVENING,
AND AREAS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN, WITH LOW 70S OVERNIGHT AND MID AND UPPER 90S SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK, UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TONIGHT WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH CAMS
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY MONDAY MORNING AND TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY, AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
MODELS LOOK TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL,
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THESE SAME
MODELS ARE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS COMING WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME MORE MILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
TAF SITES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD MOVE THROUGH KABI AND KSJT IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BRINGING A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT. SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING,
IMPACTING KSOA AND KJCT FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 96 68 89 65 / 20 40 80 30
SAN ANGELO 98 69 95 65 / 10 20 40 20
JUNCTION 97 70 95 65 / 10 20 50 30
BROWNWOOD 96 69 92 65 / 10 40 80 40
SWEETWATER 97 68 90 65 / 20 30 50 20
OZONA 96 71 95 67 / 10 20 20 20
BRADY 96 72 93 66 / 10 20 60 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...AP
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