238
FXUS64 KSJT 251141
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS EVENING THINGS WILL GET
A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AT THE SURFACE,
WE'LL HAVE THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST, A LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH, PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL AREAS FOR STORM
INITIATION TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH STORMS THEN PROGRESSING
EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A POTENTIAL MCS. MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH STORMS WILL EXTEND, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BIG COUNTRY WILL SEE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO START AS EARLY AS THE MID EVENING, WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN. WITH THESE STORMS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT VERY
LARGE HAIL (2+ INCHES), DAMAGING WINDS (70+ MPH), AN ISOLATED
TORNADO, AND FLASH FLOODING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, EXITING THE HEARTLAND AREA IN THE
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS COMING WEEK, UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TONIGHT WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH CAMS
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY MONDAY MORNING AND TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY, AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
MODELS LOOK TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL,
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THESE SAME
MODELS ARE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS COMING WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME MORE MILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS COMING WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WE COULD SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KJCT OR KBBD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS.
STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
IMPACTING KABI AND POTENTIALLY KBBD OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 96 68 89 65 / 20 40 80 30
SAN ANGELO 98 69 95 65 / 10 20 40 20
JUNCTION 97 70 95 65 / 10 20 50 30
BROWNWOOD 96 69 92 65 / 10 40 80 40
SWEETWATER 97 68 90 65 / 20 30 50 20
OZONA 96 71 95 67 / 10 20 20 20
BRADY 96 72 93 66 / 10 20 60 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...AP
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