653
FXUS64 KSJT 251856
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
156 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS EVENING THINGS WILL GET
A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT. AT THE SURFACE,
WE'LL HAVE THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST, A LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH, PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS POTENTIAL AREAS FOR STORM
INITIATION TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH STORMS THEN PROGRESSING
EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A POTENTIAL MCS. MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH STORMS WILL EXTEND, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BIG COUNTRY WILL SEE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO START AS EARLY AS THE MID EVENING, WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN. WITH THESE STORMS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT VERY
LARGE HAIL (2+ INCHES), DAMAGING WINDS (70+ MPH), AN ISOLATED
TORNADO, AND FLASH FLOODING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT, EXITING THE HEARTLAND AREA IN THE
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY WILL KEEP THIS SHORT.
MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY WILL START RIGHT AROUND 00Z AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS HOURS. AS MENTIONED ALREADY, LOTS
OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE BOUNDARIES (BOTH OUTFLOW AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT) END UP BY AFTERNOON, WHAT CLOUD COVER ENDS UP DOING, AND
HOW THESE EFFECT THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. IN A WORST CASE
SITUATION THOUGH, CAPES ARE ABOVE 4000 J/KG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BEST CASE SCENARIO LEAVES MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A COOLER, CLOUDIER AIR MASS BEHIND A STRONG
BOUNDARY AND AIR MASS JUST CANT RECOVER VERY WELL. WILL NOTE THE
HATCHED HAIL RISK FROM SPC AND KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TOMORROW, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MASS THAT IS LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE AND A LITTLE LESS SHEAR, BUT
GOOD ENOUGH FOR BOTH PARAMETERS TO SEE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES. AGAIN, FOCUS WILL PROBABLY BE ON WHATEVER SURFACE
BOUNDARIES HAPPEN TO BE ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT MOMENT, AND
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, FORECASTING WHERE
THOSE ARE GOING TO BE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS JUST NOT REALLY
POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE MOVING INTO KABI AROUND 3Z, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IFR VISIBILITIES
INTO 5Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KABI THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, BUT HAVE A LOWER
POTENTIAL VERY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTH, MADE MENTION OF VCTS AT KSJT AT 3Z, THOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS OTHERWISE RETURN
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 83 65 80 / 60 50 40 20
SAN ANGELO 69 93 65 86 / 20 20 20 30
JUNCTION 69 95 65 89 / 10 30 40 40
BROWNWOOD 68 86 64 82 / 40 50 50 30
SWEETWATER 66 83 65 81 / 60 30 20 10
OZONA 71 95 66 87 / 10 10 20 30
BRADY 70 90 66 83 / 20 40 50 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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