719
FXUS64 KSJT 252355 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS EVENING.
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PANHANDLE
ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS IN
PARTICULARLY COULD EQUAL OR EXCEED 70 MPH. ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY
IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY, BUT
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LESS CERTAIN. BEST GUESS AT TIMING, BASED ON
SHORT TERM MODELS, INDICATE THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE ROBY TO
HASKELL LINE TOWARD 8 PM, AND ABILENE 9 TO 10 PM. OUTFLOW WINDS
MAY AFFECT AREAS BEFORE THE STORMS. CERTAINLY, BOATERS ON LAKES
AND CAMPERS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEEK SHELTER WELL AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 2
INCHES PER HOUR.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION MONDAY, LIKELY EXTENDING
FROM SAN ANGELO TO BRADY/BROWNWOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AGAIN OVER 4000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS A
HAS A 15 PERCENT HATCHED AREA FOR LARGE HAIL MONDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE REGION AND LOW LCL LEVELS. OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATION AND AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY WILL KEEP THIS SHORT.
MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY WILL START RIGHT AROUND 00Z AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS HOURS. AS MENTIONED ALREADY, LOTS
OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE BOUNDARIES (BOTH OUTFLOW AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT) END UP BY AFTERNOON, WHAT CLOUD COVER ENDS UP DOING, AND
HOW THESE EFFECT THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. IN A WORST CASE
SITUATION THOUGH, CAPES ARE ABOVE 4000 J/KG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BEST CASE SCENARIO LEAVES MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A COOLER, CLOUDIER AIR MASS BEHIND A STRONG
BOUNDARY AND AIR MASS JUST CANT RECOVER VERY WELL. WILL NOTE THE
HATCHED HAIL RISK FROM SPC AND KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TOMORROW, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MASS THAT IS LITTLE LESS UNSTABLE AND A LITTLE LESS SHEAR, BUT
GOOD ENOUGH FOR BOTH PARAMETERS TO SEE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES. AGAIN, FOCUS WILL PROBABLY BE ON WHATEVER SURFACE
BOUNDARIES HAPPEN TO BE ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT MOMENT, AND
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, FORECASTING WHERE
THOSE ARE GOING TO BE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS JUST NOT REALLY
POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST AND WEST OF OUR
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AND
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. COULD HAVE STORMS ORGANIZING INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES BETWEEN 10 PM
AND 1 AM. THE KABI TAF SITE WILL MOST LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS, AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/CEILING ARE ANTICIPATED
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION. LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED (FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH) OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. EXPECTING MOSTLY
MVFR CEILINGS, BUT MAY BRIEFLY BE IFR AT SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA, AND WILL AFFECT KABI. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT. HAVE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH, BUT
SHOULD BE NEAR KSJT IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 83 65 80 / 60 50 40 20
SAN ANGELO 69 93 65 86 / 20 20 20 30
JUNCTION 69 95 65 89 / 10 30 40 40
BROWNWOOD 68 86 64 82 / 40 50 50 30
SWEETWATER 66 83 65 81 / 60 30 20 10
OZONA 71 95 66 87 / 10 10 20 30
BRADY 70 90 66 83 / 20 40 50 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
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