242
FXUS64 KSJT 260703
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
203 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK,
WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS EVENING.
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PANHANDLE
ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WINDS IN
PARTICULARLY COULD EQUAL OR EXCEED 70 MPH. ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY
IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY, BUT
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LESS CERTAIN. BEST GUESS AT TIMING, BASED ON
SHORT TERM MODELS, INDICATE THE STORMS MOVING INTO THE ROBY TO
HASKELL LINE TOWARD 8 PM, AND ABILENE 9 TO 10 PM. OUTFLOW WINDS
MAY AFFECT AREAS BEFORE THE STORMS. CERTAINLY, BOATERS ON LAKES
AND CAMPERS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEEK SHELTER WELL AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 2
INCHES PER HOUR.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION MONDAY, LIKELY EXTENDING
FROM SAN ANGELO TO BRADY/BROWNWOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AGAIN OVER 4000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS A
HAS A 15 PERCENT HATCHED AREA FOR LARGE HAIL MONDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE REGION AND LOW LCL LEVELS. OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATION AND AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRACKING THOUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, THERE STILL REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, AND REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO STAY FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEK, IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
SITES, ESPECIALLY OVER TERMINALS WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 81 64 79 62 / 60 30 10 20
SAN ANGELO 90 64 84 62 / 30 20 20 40
JUNCTION 95 65 90 62 / 30 30 40 50
BROWNWOOD 85 64 82 62 / 70 40 20 30
SWEETWATER 81 64 79 62 / 40 20 10 20
OZONA 96 66 87 63 / 10 10 30 50
BRADY 88 65 82 64 / 50 40 30 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...TP
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